Statistics 200: Lab Activity for Section 4.2

Statistics 200: Lab Activity for Section 4.2 Measuring Evidence with P-values - Learning objectives: · Recognize that a randomization distribution shows what is likely to happen by random chance if the null hypothesis ...

Statistics 200: Lab Activity for Section 4.2 Measuring Evidence with P-values - Learning objectives: · Recognize that a randomization distribution shows what is likely to happen by random chance if the null hypothesis is true · Use technology to create a randomization distribution · Interpret a p-value as the proportion of samples that would give a statistic as extreme as the observed sample, if the null hypothesis is true · Distinguish between one-tailed and two-tailed tests in finding p-values · Find a p-value from a randomization distribution Activity 1: Create a randomization distribution This activity is meant to have you participate in the creation of a randomization distribution to understand that it shows a distribution of sample statistics that were created assuming the null hypothesis is true. Every year in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania a famous groundhog, Phil, makes a prediction about the end of winter. If he comes out of his burrow and sees his shadow he predicts six more weeks of winter. If he does not see his shadow, his prediction is an early spring. In the ten years from 2007 to 2016 he has been correct seven times: Year Prediction February Temperature Prediction accuracy 2016 End of winter Above Normal Correct 2015 More winter Below normal Correct 2014 More winter Below normal Correct 2013 End of winter Above normal Correct 2012 More winter Below normal Correct 2011 End of winter Below normal Incorrect 2010 More winter Below normal Correct 2009 More winter Above normal Incorrect 2008 More winter Above normal Incorrect 2007 End of winter Above normal Correct Are his predictions better than a random 50-50 chance? 1. What are the correct null and alternative hypotheses? Hint – what is p if his predictions are random? H0: p =. 50-50 chance Ha:p > .5 2. What is p-hat when considering this example (round your answer to 4 decimal places, 0.xxxx)? This study source was downloaded by 100000819946675 from CourseHero.com on 03-25-2021 10:48:37 GMT -05:00 https://www.coursehero.com/file/50797081/Stat-200-Lab-42/ This study resource was shared via CourseHero.com .7 3. To create a randomization distribution, we must determine what the distribution of p-hat is if his prediction is random. We will use virtual coins, which have a true 50% chance of being heads. Go to justflipacoin.com. How many times will you need to flip this penny to create one sample statistic for the randomization distribution? 10 4. Now flip the penny that many times. Pretend that getting a heads with the coin is